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Thursday, January 28, 2010

Johnny vs. Randy: Mistake?

The Yankees' recent signing of switch-hitting outfielder Randy Winn is controversial among Bombers fans, to say the least. It proves, above all, that the Yanks under Hal (at least after last year's shopping spree) are operating under a hard budget. That's right: the Yankees can't spend more than a certain amount, albeit a very high amount to start with.

It begs the question: is it really worth it to play hardball? It can't be argued that Damon hasn't given enough to the team in the last few years; statistically, he possessed a .854 OPS last year (On-base Plus Slugging), putting him solidly in the upper class of players. CHONE, a reliable projection system, pegs him at an OPS of .789 for next season, not quite as good but still worth approximately between 2 and 3 wins. On the other side of the ball, he's been lackluster, and his age and condition will only continue to depreciate his glovework. Both the eye and modern fielding metrics will tell the observer that he can no longer patrol the large outfield in NYS; he brings to the table his ugly UZR of -9.5 in 2009. But perhaps his value lies beneath the threshold of measurable statistics. Is it really so ludicrous to suggest that he was one of the cornerstones of the 2009 title? While it's often discounted by sabermetricians, emotional impact often has a large effect on the team as a whole. An outfield trio of Damon, Granderson, and Swisher could easily keep the team loose for 2010, even disregarding the massive run production they would give. It sounds like 5 or 6 million wouldn't be such a bad deal for Johnny D......

Then you've got Winn. Many say he's cooked: a sharp decrease in HRs, OPS, and other crucial offensive stats in 2009 show that he probably doesn't have much left in the tank. Yankee fans demanded a fourth OF who, due to Granderson's large splits, would be at least half-competent against southpaws; Winn doesn't fill this bill no matter how you slice it. What he does bring, is mainly fielding ability. Even at an advanced age for baseball, he continues to play a mean right field and will likely be able to commandeer other positions for the Bombers. Speed, too: he stole 16 bases in 2009 while being caught only twice. Does he really stack up? Offensively, the answer is no.

But something tells most Yankee fans that when Damon left, he created a hole. A hole that could very well prove to sink them. While the offseason was excellent overall, it seems that the final piece never truly joined the puzzle.

1 comment:

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